On porfolio strategy

Quite a nice discussion on investment

Nice video on value investing

Every investor should take a look at this video on how to calculate the intrinsic value of a company

Oceanus exit long term downtrend line. Hongx showing strength going forward

Today probably is the most exciting day for China Hongx and it raise up 15c to 18.5c. Giving me a 16% profit within less than a week. My target price will be 22c which will give me close to 40% profit. By then I will have a dilemma whether to take partial profit.

Oceanus might have a big move upwards in the next few weeks. It is definitely worth taking a look as it has formed a descending wedges since the start of 2010. Indicators are hinting ovebought, which is a conflicting signal. I believe that there are some upside given that CNY is near and 44c TP sure provides some tempting risk reward trade to hold for the next few months.

As of now, my portfolio is now turning greener due to the sudden mad rush for Hongx. Probably will divest some and look at other counters that provides better opportunity. I’m already positioning myself in Yanlord which I do think provides value with its downward consolidation since Aug 2009! What about Ying Li? Hmmm.

Am I being contrarian? Since Jim Roger always say buy low sell high right. With his legendary 3300% ROI, it is hard to argue against him.

ps: The Edge will provide me with some entertainment after going AWOL for 2 weeks.

Portfolio review

My current portfolio is super green now thanks to the Jan mad rush in the first 3 days. Even my super laggard stock Capitaland is up by 10c. Not to mention Innotek, NOL, China Hongx and Yanlord. Only CapMallsAsia is in red. Ketchup red. Probably this counter is over-valued. Capita Mama is a much better counter to look at. As of now, I think probably it will be good to start to take some profit till CNY, which I think will not have a rally. Lets see if I’m right.

p.s: Wilmar is up 9c. Should I catch this falling knife?

Wilmar got downgraded by Goldman Sach

Here’s the news.

JPMorgan downgrades Wilmar International
(F34.SG) to Underweight from Overweight and slashes its target price to S$4.60
from S$7.20. Says the stock is likely to underperform near term due to a
regulatory overhang and competition in China; also cites an overly optimistic
consensus earnings estimates and likely lackluster earnings momentum, while
investors may accord a lower P/E multiple for its intended deviation from the
core business. Reduces FY11/FY12 earnings forecasts by 5.3%/7.3% as the house
lowers oilseeds crushing and consumer products margin assumptions; it also
reduces the target P/E multiple to 14X from 20X. Says Wilmar’s deviation from
its core business may attract a “conglomerate discount.” Adds future property
projects under its JV with Kerry Properties and Shangri-La “could see more
capital reallocated to property investments than reinvested in its core
agri-commodities business in future…this may lead to a lowering of the P/E
that investors are willing to accord the stock.” Stock off 0.2% at S$5.65.

A flag formation breakout with immediate target at 5.3 which I maybe tempted to accumulate. I’ve calculated base on PE comparable with GoldenAgri, it has to drop to $5. However it has a one time cash inflow which had disrupted the earnings pattern. I will calculate the normalized earnings at a later date.

Downtrend continue after goldman sach issue report. I was lucky not to get into this counter. But definitely one of my long term target.

China Hongxing making higher low

Looking that Eratat has already make a move, China Hongxing might be next. With higher low formed and breaking out of trendline, it is worth a look again. Lim and Tan has some unfavorable report due to possible write-down of receivables. The good thing is the counter party for this trade is also another brokerage firm.

Just to add on, using weekly chart instead of daily chart results in a longer time-frame outlook.

Vested interest.

High low is formed on weekly chart

Time for abalone

Oceanus coming back to long term horizontal support of 30c. My hypothesis is that the recent week is a whipsaw. This stock has been on the downtrend for 12 months. For the past 2 years, Oceanus has been always been holding well during CNY period. My holding period will at least 3 months, giving extra 1 month after CNY to decide.

There are several fundamental issue with the counter. Their restaurant venture in China not profitable. Probably they will jettison out of this JV. TDR resulting in share dilution. Earnings down due to oversupply from previous year. However all this happens 1 year ago. If they can turn around the business, the upside will be huge.

My account shows that it is local brokerage firm selling to me. Well at least this is good news

Vested interest.

Oceanus at a good price to accumulate before CNY

BetterProgram is up!

I’ve created another blog “Better Programs” to journal my experience during programming and charting my goal. Hope I will be able to take baby steps to achieve what I expect to achieve in the long run.

It is definitely not easy continuing down the path of IT. But nothing is going to be easy with globalization persisting into the 21st century. At least, I don’t think country will try to close up just to cater to their own people. Even Japan is opening up their economy.

As of now, I’m glad I did find back the joy in doing what I started out 6 years ago. However for now, I will be more focused on what I want.