Nvidia bottoming out?

Nvidia has been on a downtrend for 9 whole months with from a high of 18.55 to the current price of 9.87, representing a whooping 50% discount! However at the 24 PE, it would seems rather expensive. If the earnings improve next quarter, it would be a different story.

Technical wise, it is still on a downtrend. But I believe a sideway trend might be  forming as it is not within the influence of downtrend line with bullish divergence seen on various indicators.

Jim Cramer has also been advocating a buy for this counter due to the discount from the recent high. Nvidia definitely needs to improve its earnings. The semi-conductor industry seems to be bottoming. Texas Instrument performing better than Intel which really surprises me.

The issue with buying tech stock is the risk of being outplayed by destructive and innovative companies. The cost is high due to R&D expenditures to improve their leadership. Will the company able to come out with better products and yet improving their bottom line is the ultimate question.

US Consumption supported by wage bill

[fxstreet] Non-farm payroll employment decreased 131,000 in July with the loss of 143K temporary Census jobs. The private sector created only 71K jobs. This is disappointing from our standpoint since we were expecting twice this amount of private job creation. However, the July job report must be put into perspective. Private average weekly hours rose 0.3% while private average hourly earnings were up 0.1%. It may seem small numbers at first glance but these apply to 107.7 millions of U.S. private workers. This means that despite the poor headline number, the U.S. wage bill was up a strong 0.5% m/m in July. As today’s Hot Charts shows, with only one month in the quarter, the wage bill is already growing at a 2.3% clip in Q3, meaning no retrenchment in consumption. That said, the 3-month moving average of private job creation slowed down from 150K recently to only 50K in July. To avoid a disinflationary environment, the U.S. economy must create more jobs than the increases in labour force in order to bring back down the unemployment rate. Recent private job creations are simply not high strong enough to achieve this goal. While this morning’s report does not point to a double dip of the U.S. economy, it certainly gives the Fed more reasons to seek further boosting the economy.

Employment the leading indicator?

[Zero Hedge]

The week ended July 31 saw 479K initial jobless claims, obliterating the expectation of a minor improvement of 455K from the prior week’s 460K (revised from 457K). Continuing claims continue rising, and are now at 4537K versus expectations of 4515K. We are certain that this latest horrendous economic data point will be spun positively in 3….2….1…. (in the meantime the ongoing US collapse is about to drag the USDCAD back to parity).

The only silver lining: those who had previously fallen of insurance lists, are now back to collecting subsidies from the government, as the ranks of those collecting EUC and Extended Benefits increased by 257K in the week ended July 17, courtesy of Obama’s most recent “communism-lite” stimulus.

Seems like too much good news has been factored in and now the bad news starts leaking one by one.

Will history repeat?

Jaw-dropping intra-day market movement

NYSE was down 1000 points! before recovering 500 points to now -347.80. So was it a trader error?

US tank!

As of now, Dow has went down 2% and NASDAQ 2.77%! This is what happen when the stock juz go one direction without correction.

If memory did not fail me, I think 20dma and 20wma is broken, it’s good shorting opportunity using trendlines.

Time to look for shorting opportunities! Market might be very violent. Better to keep a tight stop loss. Look for downtrending counter with lower high. Preferably with MACD line before 0.

Alert: Will 6.90 hold for NYSE:UNG?

Looking at UNG daily candlestick, it look really bearish. If it break, downtrend will resume.

8% lost in a single day accompanied by high volume in 30 min chart. It doesn’t really look good.

U.S. stock futures firmer as Europe calms; data in focus

MADRID (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures edged higher Thursday amid a wave of earnings and Hewlett-Packard’s deal to buy Palm as the focus moved away from Europe’s sovereign debt worries.

S&P 500 futures rose 5.7 points to 1,195.80 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 9 points to 2,015.75. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 34 points.

U.S. stocks moderately rebounded on Wednesday after stronger earnings and the Fed reiterated economic conditions warrant leaving rates low for what’s likely to be an extended period. That helped take the sting out of the third sovereign debt downgrade in Europe in two days as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%.

“Looking ahead to today, weekly jobless claims in the U.S. should be the data focus and markets are looking for an 11,000 decline in initial claims,” said Jim Reid, strategist with Deutsche Bank, in a note to investors. Jobless claims are expected at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

There were a number of earnings reports, particularly in the agrichemicals and household products sector.

With Euro report negating the good news of US market, it will be interesting to see how the market will play out.

Alcoa Slips!

WSJ:

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–U.S. stocks opened slightly lower Tuesday as a disappointing first-quarter report from Alcoa and a wider-than-expected trade deficit dampened sentiment, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average back below the 11000 level.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 20 points, or 0.2%, at 10986 in early trading. Alcoa was the measure’s worst performer with a drop of 2.8%. The aluminum giant reported a narrower quarterly loss and held out hopes for improvement in the year ahead, striking a positive note as the first major company out of the gate to report first-quarter earnings. But its earnings excluding items merely met analysts’ estimates while revenue came in weaker than expected. UBS cut its investment rating on the stock to neutral from buy following the report.

Intel is the next heavyweight to report, with the world’s largest chip maker slated to post its first-quarter numbers after the close of trade Tuesday. Ahead of the report, Intel edged up 0.2%, making it the Dow’s best performer.

The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index declined 0.2%, with the materials and energy sectors leading its decline.

Tuesday’s small drop in stocks comes after the Dow on Monday closed above 11000, something it hadn’t achieved since the financial system began teetering nearly 19 months ago. By inching past the milestone, the Dow continued what amounts to a stealth rally in a market characterized by below-average trading volume and small daily moves.

The market is now looking to see if the S&P 500 can climb above the key 1200 mark. It closed Monday at 1196.48, its highest close since Sept. 26, 2008. However, the measure appeared unlikely to reach that level Tuesday, as investors were disappointed by Alcoa’s report and data that showed the U.S. trade deficit rose more than expected in February.

The wider U.S. trade deficit came as soaring imports of consumer goods and industrial supplies outweighed the impact of oil imports falling to their lowest level in 11 years. The deficit rose 7.4% to $39.70 billion in February, higher than the $39 billion shortfall Wall Street was expecting.

High chance tomorrow Ausgroup will drop also. What a bad timing!

Dow Above 11000

WSJ

Stocks rose, prompting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to close above 11000 for the first time since September 2008, with Caterpillar, Alcoa and Chevron in the lead.

The Dow climbed 8.62 points, or 0.08%, to 11005.97, its highest close since Sept. 26, 2008. Caterpillar was the measure’s best performer, up $1.46, or 2.2%, to 66.73, after Baird upgraded its investment rating on the industrial giant’s stock to “outperform” from “neutral.” The firm cited higher machinery production rates and an expected increase in global mining capital spending.

Alcoa rose 18 cents, or 1.3%, to 14.57, as investors’ hopes rose for the aluminum giant’s first-quarter report. Chevron was also strong, up 93 cents, or 1.2%, to 80.43.

The Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.82, or 0.16%, to 2457.87, its highest close since June 19, 2008. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index added 2.11, or 0.18%, to 1196.48, its highest close since Sept. 26, 2008.

The gains were small as investors were cautious about making big bets ahead of the start of earnings season.

“The market’s very tenuous and cautious,” said Roy Williams, chief executive of Prestige Wealth Management Group. “The market had a lot of momentum in the end of March, but now it’s really trying to find its way and just hanging out to see what the major companies report for their earnings and what’s going to happen from a jobs standpoint.”

He noted that, when fourth-quarter earnings were reported in January, stocks sold off despite earnings and revenue topping analysts’ estimates, as upside “surprises” had already been priced in. “It’s a case of buy the rumor, sell the news,” Williams said, noting that he expects the trend to repeat.

“I think we’ll have a small selloff here and, after earnings season concludes, I think we’ll rally again, in June. So we’re optimistic, but we’re cautious,” he added

A new psychology level for Dow, will this be a fake breakout instead? I got the feeling the market is way to hot. It’d be bad for indices to move higher without any consolidation. So will STI follow brother dow up to 3000 level?

Companies like caterpillar is being watched by investor as they provide clues to what will happen later in the economy.