How PE can distort market price

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曾渊沧:油价易升难跌 中东乱局可押注油股

February 23, 2011 Leave a comment

由突尼斯引发的茉莉花革命,已一发不可收拾,席卷整个北非与中东所有的阿拉伯国家。突尼斯总统下台后,至今仍呈乱局,埃及由军人执政,利比亚、伊朗、巴 林、也门、约旦等地的民众正在示威,希望推翻政府。中东与北非国家,可以分为石油国与非石油国,美国只关心石油国的政权谁属,北非与中东国家也可分为亲美 与反美集团,美国在自己国内人民的压力之下,会反对亲美政权武力镇压示威者,因此这些政权倒台的机会大一些,反美集团则肯定会以武力镇压示威者,倒台的机 会反而不大。至今为止,总统已下台的突尼斯与埃及皆不是石油生产国,但是当有一天沙地阿拉伯、科威特、阿联酋都出现大型民众反专制政权的纷争,石油价格肯 定飙升,因此,现阶段买石油股已站在不败之地,石油价格只会升,不会跌。

油价易升难跌

抓紧!更多上涨还在后面 揭秘手中股票不涨怎么办? 小心上涨途中突然杀跌 机构资金已出动(名单公布)

中东若大乱,则石油价格急升;就算局势缓和,石油价格也不会下跌,因为全球经济还在复苏中。20国财长会议结束,讨论如何衡量全球经济失衡,这个会议很 明确地是西方先进国家与新兴国家的一场纷争,西方先进国企图罗列一些罪证,来指斥新兴国家搞到全球经济失衡,搞到今日新兴国家经济欣欣向荣,而西方先进国 则日落西山、经济低迷。换言之,西方先进国企图以各种藉口来指控新兴国家操控经济,导致西方先进国的经济遭受打击。这种指控,新兴国家能不让步吗?不可能 的,完全不让步的结果是一拍两散,西方先进国等起贸易保护的高墙,讨价还价的结果,中国财长终于成功地建议以贸易账户来取代货币滙率与外滙储备这两个指 标,这表示将来在人民币滙率及外滙储备上,中国政府压力会缩小,但是,中国自己须努力削减贸易盈余,增加入口。

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On porfolio strategy

Quite a nice discussion on investment

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Nice video on value investing

Every investor should take a look at this video on how to calculate the intrinsic value of a company

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Oceanus exit long term downtrend line. Hongx showing strength going forward

Today probably is the most exciting day for China Hongx and it raise up 15c to 18.5c. Giving me a 16% profit within less than a week. My target price will be 22c which will give me close to 40% profit. By then I will have a dilemma whether to take partial profit.

Oceanus might have a big move upwards in the next few weeks. It is definitely worth taking a look as it has formed a descending wedges since the start of 2010. Indicators are hinting ovebought, which is a conflicting signal. I believe that there are some upside given that CNY is near and 44c TP sure provides some tempting risk reward trade to hold for the next few months.

As of now, my portfolio is now turning greener due to the sudden mad rush for Hongx. Probably will divest some and look at other counters that provides better opportunity. I’m already positioning myself in Yanlord which I do think provides value with its downward consolidation since Aug 2009! What about Ying Li? Hmmm.

Am I being contrarian? Since Jim Roger always say buy low sell high right. With his legendary 3300% ROI, it is hard to argue against him.

ps: The Edge will provide me with some entertainment after going AWOL for 2 weeks.

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Portfolio review

My current portfolio is super green now thanks to the Jan mad rush in the first 3 days. Even my super laggard stock Capitaland is up by 10c. Not to mention Innotek, NOL, China Hongx and Yanlord. Only CapMallsAsia is in red. Ketchup red. Probably this counter is over-valued. Capita Mama is a much better counter to look at. As of now, I think probably it will be good to start to take some profit till CNY, which I think will not have a rally. Lets see if I’m right.

p.s: Wilmar is up 9c. Should I catch this falling knife?

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Wilmar got downgraded by Goldman Sach

Here’s the news.

JPMorgan downgrades Wilmar International
(F34.SG) to Underweight from Overweight and slashes its target price to S$4.60
from S$7.20. Says the stock is likely to underperform near term due to a
regulatory overhang and competition in China; also cites an overly optimistic
consensus earnings estimates and likely lackluster earnings momentum, while
investors may accord a lower P/E multiple for its intended deviation from the
core business. Reduces FY11/FY12 earnings forecasts by 5.3%/7.3% as the house
lowers oilseeds crushing and consumer products margin assumptions; it also
reduces the target P/E multiple to 14X from 20X. Says Wilmar’s deviation from
its core business may attract a “conglomerate discount.” Adds future property
projects under its JV with Kerry Properties and Shangri-La “could see more
capital reallocated to property investments than reinvested in its core
agri-commodities business in future…this may lead to a lowering of the P/E
that investors are willing to accord the stock.” Stock off 0.2% at S$5.65.

A flag formation breakout with immediate target at 5.3 which I maybe tempted to accumulate. I’ve calculated base on PE comparable with GoldenAgri, it has to drop to $5. However it has a one time cash inflow which had disrupted the earnings pattern. I will calculate the normalized earnings at a later date.

2011Jan-Wilmar-800x600

Downtrend continue after goldman sach issue report. I was lucky not to get into this counter. But definitely one of my long term target.

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