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曾渊沧:炒二三线股走位要灵活

[EastMoney]

美国正临第二季度业绩公布期,股市免不了受企业业绩好坏的影响,前一阵子,数家企业业绩好,股市上涨;上周五,美银、花旗业绩不佳,股市急跌, 美银及花旗本身的股价跌幅更惊人。

美银及花旗业绩差,汇丰控股( 005)又如何?幸好,汇控亚洲的业务应该还是很不错。

中国的经济增长也放慢了,不过总理温家宝说:「这是中国政府自我调控所致。」换言之,就是要大家放心,但是,改革开放 30年,我们看过「一放就乱,一乱就收,一收就死」的现象一再重复,也的确令人担心,特别是中央打压房地产一事,目前是僵持不下,多数地产商不愿真的减 价,仍在观望,中央下不了台,只好一直打压。打压的结果影响了消费情绪,打压了股市。上海证券综合指数去年 8月见顶后反复下跌至今,前一阵子还几乎创新低,跌至 2300点边缘,中央一日不放宽打压调控,股市就不容易复苏,股民只好继续炒波幅,在一上一下之间找机会,赌一赌眼光与运气。

冠华现价 仍吸引

传统的制衣股冠华国际( 539)公布截至今年 3月的全年业绩,盈利增长 45%,很不错。但是,业绩公布后,冠华股价反急跌 5%,原因是在上一个财政年度,股票数量增加 42%,摊薄了每股盈利的增长,导致每股盈利实际上仅增长 2.4%。

股票数量大增是 因为半年前曾经批售大量新股集资,记得当时我曾经撰文推荐过,当时的推荐理由是那一批新股的主要买家就是股评人陈永陆。陈永陆作为资深股评人,自然不会打 无把握的仗,拿出大量资金投资于一只二三线股。

果然,批股集资后不久,冠华股价节节上升,升幅相当大,过后才随大市回落,最低水平还低 过批股价,然后市场开始憧憬好业绩,股价才从 1.1元水平回升。以上周五收市价 1.68元计算,市盈率( PE) 5.5倍,仍是相当有吸引力。

当然,投资二三线股要有足够的心理准备,也有必要在适当的时候套利,因为股价波幅巨大,过去半年,此股高低价相差一倍。

Actually buying small cap is not as easy as it is to control risk or the traders money management. 1 bid difference might be already a few percent. And if the calculations went wrong, the bleed might be worse.

Small caps investment is risky and hence it will always accompany with bigger returns as BIGGER risk BIGGER return as stated by the CAPM model.

Right now US market is in red after opening +60 and this is the problem of trying to catch a falling knife. Will asia follow will be a interesting question for tomorrow. Asia markets are going higher as evidenced. I’m interested of noble and straitsasia for commodities as they’ve yet to run after indoagri and goldenagri.

People are saying APAC will be going through the best 20-30 years ahead. We shall see.

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