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四面楚歌恒指难守

Why does property affect the market? Property also formed part of the index and index is often use to gauge the sentiment. As of now, with the chinese govt controlling the property prices and bank reserve ratio, it means that property sector is dragging the index.

Am I optimistic on the market? I’m a opportunist. So will take a step back and let the situation develop.

url: http://sns.ganguba.com/space-698-do-blog-id-25866.html

昨日恒指下跌 2.14%,算是温和了,昨日深成指跌 5.79%,上证综合指数跌 5.07%,那才恐怖!昨日,新加坡政府刚刚公布今年 4月份非石油出口激增 29.4%,远胜预期,但是新加坡海峡时报指数依然下跌 0.75%。

现在,港股面对的是多面夹攻,恒指还能保住 19400以上已是难能可贵。 19400是今年 2月份恒指调整的支持位,能撑得住吗?我倒不乐观。

上证综合指数已经跌破 2009年 9月的支持位 2600水平,创近 1年新低,上综指由 2008年 10月的最低点 1665回升,至 2009年 8月创股灾后新高 3477,升幅为 1812点。昨日创近 1年低点为 2557,自高位调整 920点,已超过升幅的 50%,调整幅度比香港及世界其他主要股市还要大。

中国经济不是正蓬勃发展吗? A股何以如此不济?原因只有一个,就是中央严打楼市。

上星期我到天津公干,阅读当地报章,报章天天大字标题都在谈中央打压楼市,谈物业税,谈银行收紧银根,风声鹤唳,好不惊人。这使人联想起 1993年朱镕基的宏观调控,当年的宏观调控把热烘烘的炒楼风一下子送入冰河时期,炒楼变成烂尾楼。中国改革开放 30年,希望中央政府吸取多年的经验,好好地调控搞软着陆。

严打楼市风声鹤唳
上星期在天津,到处都看到远洋地产(3377)的大广告──远洋城,非常大的开发计划。向当地朋友打听远洋地产,原来天津早年是北洋军阀的大本营,北洋舰队以天津为基地,也许是这个缘故,中远集团旗下的远洋地产,开发的房地产项目就集中在天津与北京这个曾经是北洋舰队的根据地。

现在,北京房价已经高得惊人,三环内每平方米已超越 3万元人民币,目前正是被打压对象,天津则是追得很快,连开发区每平方米售价也超过 1万元人民币。天津是中央打算重点扶持的新经济区,打压还是不打压?一打压,这个新开发区,滨海新区就建不起来;不打压,炒风就会从北京蔓延至天津。

每逢周末,大量的北京人开车到天津吃海鲜,因为价格相差很远,价格的差距大是因为租金的差距大,中国大城市居民已经和香港人一样,出外用餐所付的钱,相当大部份是交租金。

曾渊沧
作者为城市大学 MBA课程主任

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Timing as a value investor

In short to know the entry timing as a value investor, you have to keep note of what the owners are doing. If owners are buying, it signify the confidence of company survivability and the discount rate used by them.

url: http://sns.ganguba.com/space-698-do-blog-id-25755.html
目前,美国是全世界唯一一个国家可以大量印钞票,而不担心通胀、不担心货币贬值,这是美国国力的表现。因此,只要美国肯出手相助,这个世界就不会有狙击货币的行为。

1997年至 1998年的亚洲金融风暴,开始时,美国袖手旁观,导致亚洲新兴国家惨不可言,一直到 1998年 10月,危机终于烧到美国,美国政府才出手解围,亚洲金融风暴也就马上消失。

今日的欧洲债务危机,如果美国愿意出手,危机也可以药到病除。今日,国际大鳄狙击南欧诸国,目标就是欧元,只要美国政府主动出手买欧元,世界上有哪一个国际大鳄能与美国政府对抗?美国政府能大量地印美元来换取欧元,一方面稳定欧元,一方面增加欧元储备,何乐而不为?

甚么是价值投资法?价值投资的定义,就是当股价比你认为的价值低许多的时候,就入场买那只股的方法。但是,你心中的价值如何衡量?衡量的方法很多,可以参考市盈率、参考每股资产净值,也可以参考大股东愿意支付的价格。

主席增持价可参考

1987年大股灾后,我将手上几乎输光的仅余 5万元现金全部用来买长江实业(001),买了 1万股持有至今,每股价格 5元。当时买的理由是,那时候长实正准备供股,供股价约 10元,长实主席李嘉诚也答应供股。换言之,李嘉诚认为当时的长实每股值 10元,因此, 10元也就成为我心目中长实的价值,我以 5元买值 10元的股票,这就是我的价值投资法。

不久前,李嘉诚不断地出手增持长实股票,买入价大约是 100元水平。因此,这个价也可以当成现时长实价值的一个客观参考价格,你不妨自己定个折扣率,看看要打多少折才算是超值。

当然,打多少折才算便宜,则人人的标准不同。折扣率越大当然越好。不过,大折扣率只有在大股灾、大熊市里才会出现。

价值投资法是长线投资者一个最重要的原则。现在,李嘉诚已经为大家提供他心目中长实的价值是 100元。

曾渊沧

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Life and how to survive it

Extracted from http://blazingcold.blogspot.com/2008/08/speech-by-adrian-tan-at-ntu-convocation.html

I must say thank you to the faculty and staff of the Wee Kim Wee School of Communication and Information for inviting me to give your convocation address. It’s a wonderful honour and a privilege for me to speak here for ten minutes without fear of contradiction, defamation or retaliation. I say this as a Singaporean and more so as a husband.

My wife is a wonderful person and perfect in every way except one. She is the editor of a magazine. She corrects people for a living. She has honed her expert skills over a quarter of a century, mostly by practising at home during conversations between her and me.

On the other hand, I am a litigator. Essentially, I spend my day telling people how wrong they are. I make my living being disagreeable.

Nevertheless, there is perfect harmony in our matrimonial home. That is because when an editor and a litigator have an argument, the one who triumphs is always the wife.

And so I want to start by giving one piece of advice to the men: when you’ve already won her heart, you don’t need to win every argument.

Marriage is considered one milestone of life. Some of you may already be married. Some of you may never be married. Some of you will be married. Some of you will enjoy the experience so much, you will be married many, many times. Good for you.

The next big milestone in your life is today: your graduation. The end of education. You’re done learning.

You’ve probably been told the big lie that “Learning is a lifelong process” and that therefore you will continue studying and taking masters’ degrees and doctorates and professorships and so on. You know the sort of people who tell you that? Teachers. Don’t you think there is some measure of conflict of interest? They are in the business of learning, after all. Where would they be without you? They need you to be repeat customers.

The good news is that they’re wrong.

The bad news is that you don’t need further education because your entire life is over. It is gone. That may come as a shock to some of you. You’re in your teens or early twenties. People may tell you that you will live to be 70, 80, 90 years old. That is your life expectancy.

I love that term: life expectancy. We all understand the term to mean the average life span of a group of people. But I’m here to talk about a bigger idea, which is what you expect from your life.

You may be very happy to know that Singapore is currently ranked as the country with the third highest life expectancy. We are behind Andorra and Japan, and tied with San Marino. It seems quite clear why people in those countries, and ours, live so long. We share one thing in common: our football teams are all hopeless. There’s very little danger of any of our citizens having their pulses raised by watching us play in the World Cup. Spectators are more likely to be lulled into a gentle and restful nap.

Singaporeans have a life expectancy of 81.8 years. Singapore men live to an average of 79.21 years, while Singapore women live more than five years longer, probably to take into account the additional time they need to spend in the bathroom.

So here you are, in your twenties, thinking that you’ll have another 40 years to go. Four decades in which to live long and prosper.

Bad news. Read the papers. There are people dropping dead when they’re 50, 40, 30 years old. Or quite possibly just after finishing their convocation. They would be very disappointed that they didn’t meet their life expectancy.

I’m here to tell you this. Forget about your life expectancy.

After all, it’s calculated based on an average. And you never, ever want to expect being average.

Revisit those expectations. You might be looking forward to working, falling in love, marrying, raising a family. You are told that, as graduates, you should expect to find a job paying so much, where your hours are so much, where your responsibilities are so much.

That is what is expected of you. And if you live up to it, it will be an awful waste.

If you expect that, you will be limiting yourself. You will be living your life according to boundaries set by average people. I have nothing against average people. But no one should aspire to be them. And you don’t need years of education by the best minds in Singapore to prepare you to be average.

What you should prepare for is mess. Life’s a mess. You are not entitled to expect anything from it. Life is not fair. Everything does not balance out in the end. Life happens, and you have no control over it. Good and bad things happen to you day by day, hour by hour, moment by moment. Your degree is a poor armour against fate.

Don’t expect anything. Erase all life expectancies. Just live. Your life is over as of today. At this point in time, you have grown as tall as you will ever be, you are physically the fittest you will ever be in your entire life and you are probably looking the best that you will ever look. This is as good as it gets. It is all downhill from here. Or up. No one knows.

What does this mean for you? It is good that your life is over.

Since your life is over, you are free. Let me tell you the many wonderful things that you can do when you are free.

The most important is this: do not work.

Work is anything that you are compelled to do. By its very nature, it is undesirable.

Work kills. The Japanese have a term “Karoshi”, which means death from overwork. That’s the most dramatic form of how work can kill. But it can also kill you in more subtle ways. If you work, then day by day, bit by bit, your soul is chipped away, disintegrating until there’s nothing left. A rock has been ground into sand and dust.

There’s a common misconception that work is necessary. You will meet people working at miserable jobs. They tell you they are “making a living”. No, they’re not. They’re dying, frittering away their fast-extinguishing lives doing things which are, at best, meaningless and, at worst, harmful.

People will tell you that work ennobles you, that work lends you a certain dignity. Work makes you free. The slogan “Arbeit macht frei” was placed at the entrances to a number of Nazi concentration camps. Utter nonsense.

Do not waste the vast majority of your life doing something you hate so that you can spend the small remainder sliver of your life in modest comfort. You may never reach that end anyway.

Resist the temptation to get a job. Instead, play. Find something you enjoy doing. Do it. Over and over again. You will become good at it for two reasons: you like it, and you do it often. Soon, that will have value in itself.

I like arguing, and I love language. So, I became a litigator. I enjoy it and I would do it for free. If I didn’t do that, I would’ve been in some other type of work that still involved writing fiction – probably a sports journalist.

So what should you do? You will find your own niche. I don’t imagine you will need to look very hard. By this time in your life, you will have a very good idea of what you will want to do. In fact, I’ll go further and say the ideal situation would be that you will not be able to stop yourself pursuing your passions. By this time you should know what your obsessions are. If you enjoy showing off your knowledge and feeling superior, you might become a teacher.

Find that pursuit that will energise you, consume you, become an obsession. Each day, you must rise with a restless enthusiasm. If you don’t, you are working.

Most of you will end up in activities which involve communication. To those of you I have a second message: be wary of the truth. I’m not asking you to speak it, or write it, for there are times when it is dangerous or impossible to do those things. The truth has a great capacity to offend and injure, and you will find that the closer you are to someone, the more care you must take to disguise or even conceal the truth. Often, there is great virtue in being evasive, or equivocating. There is also great skill. Any child can blurt out the truth, without thought to the consequences. It takes great maturity to appreciate the value of silence.

In order to be wary of the truth, you must first know it. That requires great frankness to yourself. Never fool the person in the mirror.

I have told you that your life is over, that you should not work, and that you should avoid telling the truth. I now say this to you: be hated.

It’s not as easy as it sounds. Do you know anyone who hates you? Yet every great figure who has contributed to the human race has been hated, not just by one person, but often by a great many. That hatred is so strong it has caused those great figures to be shunned, abused, murdered and in one famous instance, nailed to a cross.

One does not have to be evil to be hated. In fact, it’s often the case that one is hated precisely because one is trying to do right by one’s own convictions. It is far too easy to be liked, one merely has to be accommodating and hold no strong convictions. Then one will gravitate towards the centre and settle into the average. That cannot be your role. There are a great many bad people in the world, and if you are not offending them, you must be bad yourself. Popularity is a sure sign that you are doing something wrong.

The other side of the coin is this: fall in love.

I didn’t say “be loved”. That requires too much compromise. If one changes one’s looks, personality and values, one can be loved by anyone.

Rather, I exhort you to love another human being. It may seem odd for me to tell you this. You may expect it to happen naturally, without deliberation. That is false. Modern society is anti-love. We’ve taken a microscope to everyone to bring out their flaws and shortcomings. It far easier to find a reason not to love someone, than otherwise. Rejection requires only one reason. Love requires complete acceptance. It is hard work – the only kind of work that I find palatable.

Loving someone has great benefits. There is admiration, learning, attraction and something which, for the want of a better word, we call happiness. In loving someone, we become inspired to better ourselves in every way. We learn the truth worthlessness of material things. We celebrate being human. Loving is good for the soul.

Loving someone is therefore very important, and it is also important to choose the right person. Despite popular culture, love doesn’t happen by chance, at first sight, across a crowded dance floor. It grows slowly, sinking roots first before branching and blossoming. It is not a silly weed, but a mighty tree that weathers every storm.

You will find, that when you have someone to love, that the face is less important than the brain, and the body is less important than the heart.

You will also find that it is no great tragedy if your love is not reciprocated. You are not doing it to be loved back. Its value is to inspire you.

Finally, you will find that there is no half-measure when it comes to loving someone. You either don’t, or you do with every cell in your body, completely and utterly, without reservation or apology. It consumes you, and you are reborn, all the better for it.

Don’t work. Avoid telling the truth. Be hated. Love someone.

You’re going to have a busy life. Thank goodness there’s no life expectancy.

People go into the stock market for more money. To survive. And at the same time looking to find a better job to have a better life. And all come back to the need for money.

But sometimes it’s not all about money but the balance in life. And this article is definitely worth posting and remind me of the life ahead!

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曾渊沧 on Property and Euro

url:http://sns.ganguba.com/space-698-do-blog-id-25585.html

欧元最大的问题是它是多个国家共享的货币,因此,甚么时候该开动印钞机印钞票,是一个 不容易决定的事,不像美国那么简单。 2009年 3月 18日,美国联储局决定大量印钞票,宣布推行「量化宽松」政策后,我曾经撰文告诉大家:美国的噩梦结束了, 美股见底了!

今日,南欧诸国面对来自美国的大鳄与评级机构的连手狙击,束手无策。实际上,解决的方法也是很简单,那就是由欧元区组成的欧洲中央银 行大印钞票来购买希腊、西班牙、意大利及葡萄牙等的国债。那么,狙击手就马上一败涂地,卷席回美国。若真的成事,担心大量印钞票会导致欧元贬值?我的看法 是,贬值就贬值,有甚么好担心。美国大印钞票之后,美元兑欧元就一路贬值,最差的时候是 1欧元兑 1.5美元。但是,美元贬值对美国产生甚么坏影响?没有,反而刺激了美国的出口,美国大印钞票导致美国出现 恶性通胀吗?也没有。

因此,我相信,国际大鳄对欧元区的狙击行动,最后很可能就是由欧洲中央银行大印钞票来 解决。目前,欧盟仍倾向由各国拿钱出来救希腊,这肯定是行不通的。欧洲那一个国家的政府,能说服自己的选民支持用自己国家的公款来救希腊?因此,最简单的 方法就是开动印钞机大印欧元。
大印欧元可抗大鳄
这一回中央打压楼市的政策的力度 的确强,正如昨日特首曾荫权在立法会说:「政府要摧毁楼市是很容易的,只是摧毁之后要托市就很难。」昨日恒大地产(3333)宣布,全国推盘一律以 85折 出售,楼价开始下跌了!

尽管恒大宣布打折出售后,多家内地地产商说不会追随,但 我相信这些说不会追随的地产商口硬不了多久。恒大是聪明者,第一个打折卖楼套现,把钱放入口袋最安全,迟些时候,恐怕目前仍口硬的内地地产商打 85折也卖不出楼。 1997年亚洲金融风暴爆发 后,第一个大减价卖楼的,就是眼光独到的长江实业(001),当年数千单位的盈翠半岛一天卖光,长实袋袋平安。之后,楼价就一沉不起。

曾渊沧
作者为城市大学 MBA课程主任

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曾渊沧专栏:大鳄连环拳意在压欧元

Luckily I know how to read mandarin… It’s not easy to understand but it’s related to the asia financial meltdown in 1997.

url: http://sns.ganguba.com/space-698-do-blog-id-25563.html

希腊及其他南欧国家的债务问题挥之不去,评级机构更进一步警告日本,说可能降低日本的 债务评级。评级机构已成了国际金融大鳄,出一出声就足以翻云覆雨,我绝对不相信这些所谓评级机构的专业水平。

金融海啸的起因是甚么?是 那些经过投资银行精密包装的有毒债券所引起。为甚么世界各地的银行、政府、大企业及小小的老百姓,会投资于这些有毒债券?那是因为这些有毒债券都得到今日 将希腊国债降至垃圾级的评级机构评为 AAA级,为高评级、低风险的级别,转眼间这些 AAA级的债券变成有毒债券。

今日,美国的国债远比希腊严重,为甚么希腊的评级是垃圾级别而美国不是?说穿了,这是评级机构与 国际大鳄狼狈为奸的行为。 1998年,亚洲金融风暴的发生,评级机构协助国际大鳄一再降低亚洲各 国的主权评级,是其中一个很重要的条件。

评级机构为全世界评级,谁又为评级机构评级?我希望香港特区政府能将评级机构也列入监管范围,扩大 证监会的权力至监管评级机构,查一查他们的评级过程,有没有甚么见不得人的事。我估计,欧盟迟早会另起炉灶,自设评级机构,不让目前这几家专为美国利益做 事的美国评级机构垄断市场。

more…

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Alcoa Slips!

WSJ:

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–U.S. stocks opened slightly lower Tuesday as a disappointing first-quarter report from Alcoa and a wider-than-expected trade deficit dampened sentiment, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average back below the 11000 level.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 20 points, or 0.2%, at 10986 in early trading. Alcoa was the measure’s worst performer with a drop of 2.8%. The aluminum giant reported a narrower quarterly loss and held out hopes for improvement in the year ahead, striking a positive note as the first major company out of the gate to report first-quarter earnings. But its earnings excluding items merely met analysts’ estimates while revenue came in weaker than expected. UBS cut its investment rating on the stock to neutral from buy following the report.

Intel is the next heavyweight to report, with the world’s largest chip maker slated to post its first-quarter numbers after the close of trade Tuesday. Ahead of the report, Intel edged up 0.2%, making it the Dow’s best performer.

The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index declined 0.2%, with the materials and energy sectors leading its decline.

Tuesday’s small drop in stocks comes after the Dow on Monday closed above 11000, something it hadn’t achieved since the financial system began teetering nearly 19 months ago. By inching past the milestone, the Dow continued what amounts to a stealth rally in a market characterized by below-average trading volume and small daily moves.

The market is now looking to see if the S&P 500 can climb above the key 1200 mark. It closed Monday at 1196.48, its highest close since Sept. 26, 2008. However, the measure appeared unlikely to reach that level Tuesday, as investors were disappointed by Alcoa’s report and data that showed the U.S. trade deficit rose more than expected in February.

The wider U.S. trade deficit came as soaring imports of consumer goods and industrial supplies outweighed the impact of oil imports falling to their lowest level in 11 years. The deficit rose 7.4% to $39.70 billion in February, higher than the $39 billion shortfall Wall Street was expecting.

High chance tomorrow Ausgroup will drop also. What a bad timing!

Dow Above 11000

WSJ

Stocks rose, prompting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to close above 11000 for the first time since September 2008, with Caterpillar, Alcoa and Chevron in the lead.

The Dow climbed 8.62 points, or 0.08%, to 11005.97, its highest close since Sept. 26, 2008. Caterpillar was the measure’s best performer, up $1.46, or 2.2%, to 66.73, after Baird upgraded its investment rating on the industrial giant’s stock to “outperform” from “neutral.” The firm cited higher machinery production rates and an expected increase in global mining capital spending.

Alcoa rose 18 cents, or 1.3%, to 14.57, as investors’ hopes rose for the aluminum giant’s first-quarter report. Chevron was also strong, up 93 cents, or 1.2%, to 80.43.

The Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.82, or 0.16%, to 2457.87, its highest close since June 19, 2008. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index added 2.11, or 0.18%, to 1196.48, its highest close since Sept. 26, 2008.

The gains were small as investors were cautious about making big bets ahead of the start of earnings season.

“The market’s very tenuous and cautious,” said Roy Williams, chief executive of Prestige Wealth Management Group. “The market had a lot of momentum in the end of March, but now it’s really trying to find its way and just hanging out to see what the major companies report for their earnings and what’s going to happen from a jobs standpoint.”

He noted that, when fourth-quarter earnings were reported in January, stocks sold off despite earnings and revenue topping analysts’ estimates, as upside “surprises” had already been priced in. “It’s a case of buy the rumor, sell the news,” Williams said, noting that he expects the trend to repeat.

“I think we’ll have a small selloff here and, after earnings season concludes, I think we’ll rally again, in June. So we’re optimistic, but we’re cautious,” he added

A new psychology level for Dow, will this be a fake breakout instead? I got the feeling the market is way to hot. It’d be bad for indices to move higher without any consolidation. So will STI follow brother dow up to 3000 level?

Companies like caterpillar is being watched by investor as they provide clues to what will happen later in the economy.

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