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Yield curve and stocks correlation

Kiril Yordanov – Trading the Yield Curve

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Jaw-dropping intra-day market movement

NYSE was down 1000 points! before recovering 500 points to now -347.80. So was it a trader error?

Categories: market, news, Uncategorized, us Tags: , ,

US tank!

As of now, Dow has went down 2% and NASDAQ 2.77%! This is what happen when the stock juz go one direction without correction.

If memory did not fail me, I think 20dma and 20wma is broken, it’s good shorting opportunity using trendlines.

Time to look for shorting opportunities! Market might be very violent. Better to keep a tight stop loss. Look for downtrending counter with lower high. Preferably with MACD line before 0.

Categories: daily, djia, market, stock, us Tags: , ,

No sell in may and go away?

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks surged Monday, with retailers rallying after a report showed consumer spending at a record level and as investors took heart from the latest merger activity, including UAL Corp.’s $3.15 billion deal with Continental Airlines Inc.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average  (INDU 11,152, +143.44, +1.30%) ended up 143.22 points, or 1.3%, at 11,151.83, its biggest one-day gain since mid-February and nearly recouping Friday’s 159-point slide.

All but one component traded higher, led by shares of Caterpillar, Inc.  (CAT 69.78, -0.16, -0.23%) , which gained 2.7%.

Alcoa Inc.  (AA 13.13, -0.02, -0.15%) was the sole decliner among the blue chips, with shares of the aluminum producer down 2.1%. more

May actually open higher for Dow. One shouldn’t be too surprise given that the stock market is so unpredictable. With the earnings so good this quarter, its hard to emulate next quarter. We shall see if it happens

Categories: djia, indice, market, news, stock Tags: , , , ,

Daily: Bear wins

Today STI seems to be moving further down and STI 3000 mark will be a hard resistance to break. Looking at 2930 for minor support. The overall market looks weak. Will be looking into a correction before entering into market. Hopefully it will rest at major support again.

Property market is one of the weakest sector ever since China is hell bent on curbing speculation. But the developers ain’t heeding the advice. Will it be another Obama-Bank situation?

One real surprise is that Noble did not break the $3 mark, which if it happen will face a deep correction. $3 is also the price which the outgoing CEO is being paid for all his stock and options.

Will be looking at the performance of Dow tonight. If it continue to a landslide, the US market will be a very ugly scene to be in since it has been too far away from HOME (20d MA).

Will be looking into down trending counter to short to hedge against the downward movement.

Anyway with this article, seems like things doesn’t look good

May 3 (Bloomberg) — Investor Marc Faber said China’s economy will slow and possibly “crash” within a year as declines in stock and commodity prices signal the nation’s property bubble is set to burst.

The Shanghai Composite Index has failed to regain its 2009 high while industrial commodities and shares of Australian resource exporters are acting “heavy,” Faber said. The opening of the World Expo in Shanghai last week is “not a particularly good omen,” he said, citing a property bust and depression that followed the 1873 World Exhibition in Vienna.

“The market is telling you that something is not quite right,” Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong today. “The Chinese economy is going to slow down regardless. It is more likely that we will even have a crash sometime in the next nine to 12 months.”

An index tracking Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong dropped 1.8 percent today, the most in two weeks, after the central bank raised reserve requirements for the third time this year. The Shanghai Composite has slumped 12 percent this year, Asia’s worst performer, as policy makers seek to rein in a lending boom that’s spurred record gains in property prices. China’s markets are shut for a holiday today.

more…

Looking ahead: Singapore

STI

Trend: Sideway hold or downtrend (uptrend line broken), 2930 to hold for uptrend else trend reversal with lower low being made. Mini-downtrend line holding the upward movement. Have to move upwards above 3040 for uptrend to resume.

Indicators: MFI, RSI and Stochastic all turning down. MACD crossover and turning down. CCI turning up.

Candlestick: Last candlestick is a doji with high volume.

Conclusion. Bull and bear are in a tussle right now with the bear getting the upper hand.

Banking Sector

Daily chart: Rebounding from resistance turn support. Very similar to STI but the last candlestick is a white spinning top. It might be forming a bullish flag. RSI MFI seems to hold.

Weekly chart: market seems to be overbought at the moment with possible formation of double top.

Commodities sector

Daily chart: downtrend or possible sideway and last candlestick looks really bad. with all indicators heading southward.

Weekly: 20w MA seems to hold. 3 black candle for last 3 weeks.

Marine sector

Daily: strong uptrend with all indicators doesn’t look good. Put a trailing stop below 20d MA.

Weekly: 5w MA holding the sector but it is the first dark cloud cover after 9 weekly white candle and it its very far from home (20w MA). Look to cash out at least half for stocks in this sector. Stochastic is also giving same signal.

Properties sector

Daily: back to support level. It seems to be beaten down real bad. 5 EMA is holding the downward movement with all indicators turning up from oversold region.

Weekly: doesn’t really look good for now. Better to wait for 1 weekly white candle before going into this sector.

U.S. stock futures firmer as Europe calms; data in focus

MADRID (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures edged higher Thursday amid a wave of earnings and Hewlett-Packard’s deal to buy Palm as the focus moved away from Europe’s sovereign debt worries.

S&P 500 futures rose 5.7 points to 1,195.80 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 9 points to 2,015.75. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 34 points.

U.S. stocks moderately rebounded on Wednesday after stronger earnings and the Fed reiterated economic conditions warrant leaving rates low for what’s likely to be an extended period. That helped take the sting out of the third sovereign debt downgrade in Europe in two days as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%.

“Looking ahead to today, weekly jobless claims in the U.S. should be the data focus and markets are looking for an 11,000 decline in initial claims,” said Jim Reid, strategist with Deutsche Bank, in a note to investors. Jobless claims are expected at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

There were a number of earnings reports, particularly in the agrichemicals and household products sector.

With Euro report negating the good news of US market, it will be interesting to see how the market will play out.