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Mixed signals in Citibank

From the technicals point of view, Citi is under consolidation in a triangle with mini uptrend. However the volume is getting lower and CCI is also heading lower. On the bright side, MACD, stochastic and RSI is trending upwards. Hence do look for a break out of consolidation before entry.

No vested interest.

2010Aug-Citigroup Inc (C)-800x800

Citi in consolidation mode

*Disclaimer applies

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Categories: citi, nyse Tags: ,

First sign of weakness

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met last Thursday and decided it would be “premature” to declare the end of the recession, according to an NBER statement released on Monday. “Many indicators are quite preliminary at this time and will be revised in coming months,” the statement said. The NBER is the non-profit arbiter of recession dating. The recent recession began in December 2007. Many Wall Street economists informally believe that it ended in the middle of 2009, making it the longest recession since the Great Depression.

Many stock form doji ahead of quarter 2 report. Other than Yangzijiang and Cosco and a few other special stock, broad market movement is seeing signs of profit taking. Can it be people is trying to pre-empt something?

Ezra had good news yet still dropped by 10 cents. When you have good news and yet the stock can drop so much, it is a sign of danger ahead. Ezra is trading in a channel, if it breaks, shortist will come in for a run. Keep a tight stop as lots of divergence is already showing is many sector.

Oil Surges to 17-Month High on Signs of U.S. Economic Growth

April 6, 2010 1 comment

April 5 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil surged to the highest level in 17 months as growth in American jobs and service industries signaled that the economy is recovering from the worst recession since the 1930s.

Oil climbed 2.1 percent amid optimism that fuel demand will increase with an economic rebound. The U.S. is the world’s largest energy-consuming country. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose to an 18-month high.

“The market is in full embrace of the recovery thesis and is pricing it in accordingly,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Round Earth Capital, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on food and energy commodities. “It’s enthusiasm that we’re coming out of this recession.”

Crude oil for May delivery increased $1.75 to settle at $86.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price since Oct. 8, 2008. The contract has risen for five consecutive sessions, the longest stretch in six weeks. Crude has climbed 65 percent in the past year.

Oil traded within a range of $68 to $84 a barrel in the six months ended March 31. Prices rose the past two months as improved investor confidence boosted world equity markets.

The S&P 500 gained 0.8 percent to 1,187.44 in New York, also on the jobs report.

U.S. payrolls rose by 162,000 last month, the Labor Department reported April 2, when U.S. financial markets were closed for the Good Friday holiday. The report included 48,000 temporary workers hired by the government to conduct the Census.

more…

Oil is one of the main factor to watch in a economy because to a certain accuracy, it does show the bullishness or bearishness of the market. However, oil has been speculated quite badly during the 2008 bull run.

Having too high a oil price will not help the economy either cos people will have to spend more on oil and less on other things.

USO is one of the nyse counter and seems to be a ascending triangle in making. We can use the breakout strategy to enter this counter. Oil will also drive the gas and commodities up. Take a look at UNG for entry as the downward trend has only been broken 2 days ago.

Commodities stock such as StraitsAsia, GoldenAgri and IndoAgri seems to be weakened by the major 4 day run  with a spinning top and might have to consolidate to go higher.

Alert: UNG breakout

April 2, 2010 1 comment

United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSE:UNG) is breaking out from making a move up ever since it drop from USD 64 to USD 7.35, with various indicators such as Stochastic, RSI, MFI and MACD at oversold region. MACD histogram and RSI is showing bullish divergence. ADX is showing bear is losing strength. Support is at $6.90 and major support turn resistance is at $8.50.

ung downtrend breakout

ung downtrend breakout

From ETFDB

March was one of the best months in recent memory for most investors. Equity markets surged on renewed consumer confidence and continued strong demand from emerging markets. The ETFdb 60 Index, a benchmark measuring the performance of asset classes available through ETFs, climbed 3% during the month, an impressive gain that was held in check by the significant bond allocation in the index.

But not all asset classes enjoyed a March to remember. Fixed income investments were relatively flat, while some broad-based commodity funds inched lower. And few funds have ever turned in a monthly performance worse than the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) did in March. Investors in UNG checking their accounts today will see that the fund slid by more than 20% during the month of March. And unfortunately, that big red number is no April Fool’s Day gag.
Behind The Freefall

So how did UNG lose 20% in just 23 trading days? Surprisingly, the usual suspect wasn’t to blame this time.

UNG implements a futures-based strategy to accomplish its objective of tracking changes in the price of natural gas. As such, the fund’s value is impacted by three factors: 1) changes in the spot price of natural gas, 2) the “roll yield” incurred or earned when expiring contracts are exchanged for next-month contracts, and 3) interest earned on uninvested cash. UNG became a case study in contango last year, as the second of these became the dominant factor in the fund’s returns. Natural gas prices finished 2009 about where they started, but UNG lost more than 50% of its value (see What’s Wrong With UNG?).

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