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Fib Time retracement

July 14, 2010 1 comment

Next turning point might be at 2-3 Aug. Will it be really this zhun? It’d be 2 weeks from now. And I will be following closely on this experiment of using date together with price to time my entry.

A reminder just in case. Will it will it not?

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HL Asia

Downtrend forming a horizontal base but still within the down channel. Now trading in a tight range of 20 cents. Volume is expanding and hence there might be a good chance that it will break upwards of the horizontal range as well as the downtrending line.

RSI is is moving out of the oversold region. Other indicators like MACD and Stochastic is having a bullish divergence. ADX- is losing momentum but a break below 3 might signal the trend will continue.

UOL: hourly chart trend reversal

Hourly chart trend reversal with exit from downward trendline.

Strategies to use: Wait for another low to form and bounce off from there to establish a hourly trend line preferably with stochastic crossover from oversold region.

Disclaimer applies

uol hourly chart trend reversal

uol hourly chart trend reversal

Shorting targets

  1. BanyanTree ( trade using pivot point though uptrend)
  2. Capitaland (using 20dma as stoploss point)
  3. Parkway
  4. Capitamall
  5. CapMallsAsia
  6. MacIntInfra

Can trade using trend line with tight stop loss or wait for rebound at lower high to ambush. With many indicators at oversold area, do take note a rebound might come very soon.

Disclaimer applies: This is only to my personal opinion using TA and automated rules to scan out the list.

Daily: Bear wins

Today STI seems to be moving further down and STI 3000 mark will be a hard resistance to break. Looking at 2930 for minor support. The overall market looks weak. Will be looking into a correction before entering into market. Hopefully it will rest at major support again.

Property market is one of the weakest sector ever since China is hell bent on curbing speculation. But the developers ain’t heeding the advice. Will it be another Obama-Bank situation?

One real surprise is that Noble did not break the $3 mark, which if it happen will face a deep correction. $3 is also the price which the outgoing CEO is being paid for all his stock and options.

Will be looking at the performance of Dow tonight. If it continue to a landslide, the US market will be a very ugly scene to be in since it has been too far away from HOME (20d MA).

Will be looking into down trending counter to short to hedge against the downward movement.

Anyway with this article, seems like things doesn’t look good

May 3 (Bloomberg) — Investor Marc Faber said China’s economy will slow and possibly “crash” within a year as declines in stock and commodity prices signal the nation’s property bubble is set to burst.

The Shanghai Composite Index has failed to regain its 2009 high while industrial commodities and shares of Australian resource exporters are acting “heavy,” Faber said. The opening of the World Expo in Shanghai last week is “not a particularly good omen,” he said, citing a property bust and depression that followed the 1873 World Exhibition in Vienna.

“The market is telling you that something is not quite right,” Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong today. “The Chinese economy is going to slow down regardless. It is more likely that we will even have a crash sometime in the next nine to 12 months.”

An index tracking Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong dropped 1.8 percent today, the most in two weeks, after the central bank raised reserve requirements for the third time this year. The Shanghai Composite has slumped 12 percent this year, Asia’s worst performer, as policy makers seek to rein in a lending boom that’s spurred record gains in property prices. China’s markets are shut for a holiday today.

more…

Alert: Will 6.90 hold for NYSE:UNG?

Looking at UNG daily candlestick, it look really bearish. If it break, downtrend will resume.

8% lost in a single day accompanied by high volume in 30 min chart. It doesn’t really look good.

Daily Alert

STI halftime:

Ho Bee , Yanlord, Genting rebounding.

Analysis on Ho Bee

PE 3.6 EPS 0.457 NAV 1.63

Fundamentally, this stock is very delicious indeed.

Today has made a pivot point accompanied by good volume these 2 days. The downward pointing trendline might be broken soon. Macd Histogram turning up with Stochastic and RSI all pointing up. Put your cutloss point 4% below 1.63

Analysis on Genting SP

NAV 0.354

High volume breakout. Double bottom established. Volatility is coming back. This is a high risk play. Better to wait for 0.91 for resistance turn support.

Analysis on Yanlord

PE 10 EPS 0.167 NAV 1.22

Pivot point with trendline broken. However volume doesn’t look very convincing. RSI, MACD histogram, CCI and Stochastic all turning up. This looks to be a perfect setup though.

My take:

Property sector seems to be supported. Yanlord, Ho Bee, CityDev and Capitaland downward movement seems to be slowing and turning soon. I’m more interested in UOL since this one fundamentally will be one targeted by value investor. This helps to lower my downside risk!

May is coming. After that is world cup. And then government is pressing the property pricing down. It its a tough call whether to continue to stay in this sector.