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Daily: Bear wins

Today STI seems to be moving further down and STI 3000 mark will be a hard resistance to break. Looking at 2930 for minor support. The overall market looks weak. Will be looking into a correction before entering into market. Hopefully it will rest at major support again.

Property market is one of the weakest sector ever since China is hell bent on curbing speculation. But the developers ain’t heeding the advice. Will it be another Obama-Bank situation?

One real surprise is that Noble did not break the $3 mark, which if it happen will face a deep correction. $3 is also the price which the outgoing CEO is being paid for all his stock and options.

Will be looking at the performance of Dow tonight. If it continue to a landslide, the US market will be a very ugly scene to be in since it has been too far away from HOME (20d MA).

Will be looking into down trending counter to short to hedge against the downward movement.

Anyway with this article, seems like things doesn’t look good

May 3 (Bloomberg) — Investor Marc Faber said China’s economy will slow and possibly “crash” within a year as declines in stock and commodity prices signal the nation’s property bubble is set to burst.

The Shanghai Composite Index has failed to regain its 2009 high while industrial commodities and shares of Australian resource exporters are acting “heavy,” Faber said. The opening of the World Expo in Shanghai last week is “not a particularly good omen,” he said, citing a property bust and depression that followed the 1873 World Exhibition in Vienna.

“The market is telling you that something is not quite right,” Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong today. “The Chinese economy is going to slow down regardless. It is more likely that we will even have a crash sometime in the next nine to 12 months.”

An index tracking Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong dropped 1.8 percent today, the most in two weeks, after the central bank raised reserve requirements for the third time this year. The Shanghai Composite has slumped 12 percent this year, Asia’s worst performer, as policy makers seek to rein in a lending boom that’s spurred record gains in property prices. China’s markets are shut for a holiday today.

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U.S. stock futures firmer as Europe calms; data in focus

MADRID (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures edged higher Thursday amid a wave of earnings and Hewlett-Packard’s deal to buy Palm as the focus moved away from Europe’s sovereign debt worries.

S&P 500 futures rose 5.7 points to 1,195.80 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 9 points to 2,015.75. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 34 points.

U.S. stocks moderately rebounded on Wednesday after stronger earnings and the Fed reiterated economic conditions warrant leaving rates low for what’s likely to be an extended period. That helped take the sting out of the third sovereign debt downgrade in Europe in two days as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%.

“Looking ahead to today, weekly jobless claims in the U.S. should be the data focus and markets are looking for an 11,000 decline in initial claims,” said Jim Reid, strategist with Deutsche Bank, in a note to investors. Jobless claims are expected at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

There were a number of earnings reports, particularly in the agrichemicals and household products sector.

With Euro report negating the good news of US market, it will be interesting to see how the market will play out.

Alcoa Slips!

WSJ:

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–U.S. stocks opened slightly lower Tuesday as a disappointing first-quarter report from Alcoa and a wider-than-expected trade deficit dampened sentiment, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average back below the 11000 level.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 20 points, or 0.2%, at 10986 in early trading. Alcoa was the measure’s worst performer with a drop of 2.8%. The aluminum giant reported a narrower quarterly loss and held out hopes for improvement in the year ahead, striking a positive note as the first major company out of the gate to report first-quarter earnings. But its earnings excluding items merely met analysts’ estimates while revenue came in weaker than expected. UBS cut its investment rating on the stock to neutral from buy following the report.

Intel is the next heavyweight to report, with the world’s largest chip maker slated to post its first-quarter numbers after the close of trade Tuesday. Ahead of the report, Intel edged up 0.2%, making it the Dow’s best performer.

The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index declined 0.2%, with the materials and energy sectors leading its decline.

Tuesday’s small drop in stocks comes after the Dow on Monday closed above 11000, something it hadn’t achieved since the financial system began teetering nearly 19 months ago. By inching past the milestone, the Dow continued what amounts to a stealth rally in a market characterized by below-average trading volume and small daily moves.

The market is now looking to see if the S&P 500 can climb above the key 1200 mark. It closed Monday at 1196.48, its highest close since Sept. 26, 2008. However, the measure appeared unlikely to reach that level Tuesday, as investors were disappointed by Alcoa’s report and data that showed the U.S. trade deficit rose more than expected in February.

The wider U.S. trade deficit came as soaring imports of consumer goods and industrial supplies outweighed the impact of oil imports falling to their lowest level in 11 years. The deficit rose 7.4% to $39.70 billion in February, higher than the $39 billion shortfall Wall Street was expecting.

High chance tomorrow Ausgroup will drop also. What a bad timing!

MarketWatch: Correction could be coming

I’ve mentioned that the divergence was seen on STI since last week and on friday it has followed Hang Seng (breaking out of a symmetrical triangle) to move higher.

During this period, watch out for profit taking session, or at least pocket some for those at resistance turning down and put some at counters at support. Like this, you will be cutting down your risk while still enjoying the potential upside.

Always remember the old maxim: let your profit run, cut your losses short.

Friday was a good run for many stock. Really did not expect the bullishness of the market on Friday. Friday is a very good indicator of what will happen on Monday due to the willingness of trader holding the stock over the weekends. Given my current holding as listed:

  1. Ausgroup (red)
  2. Capmallasia (red)
  3. Tat Hong (green)
  4. StraitsAsia (green)
  5. Seroja (green)
  6. FraserComm (red) – super heartache
  7. Ryobi Kiso (green)

I will be looking at a few forgotten counters to enter at support while divest some while on the up move. Cashout on GoldenAgri on Wednesday due to small holding only.

My friend recommended me to put up a weekly post on “My Mom recommendation” since she’s somehow always able to spot counters poise for big move example GMG (heartache) and Seroja but I was always not willing to enter due to lack of good entry.

I will be looking into the trading framework to reduce portfolio risk. I will take quite some time so keep a lookout for this column.

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) — Is it too quiet out there?

After a couple of years of extraordinary volatility on Wall Street, the relative calm of recent weeks might be considered a very welcome development.

But some advisers nevertheless worry that it means the market is overdue for a correction.

The last time the S&P 500 /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX 1,194, +7.94, +0.67%) dropped by at least 1% in a single trading session was Feb. 23. If today proves to be yet another day without a 1% decline, as indeed looks likely mid-day, it would mean that today is 32nd straight session without this big a drop.

You have to go back to May 2007 to find another occasion in which the S&P 500 index went this many sessions in a row without dropping at least 1% in any given session.

As we know now, of course, May 2007 came just a couple of months prior to the eruption of the sub-prime mortgage mess and the end of the 2002-2007 bull market.

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Evidence showing economy is going higher

Look at the the end of the line for every indices, it has shown that Asian market is moving higher with Shanghai and Hang Seng confluence with the market movement in STI. Not to mention, SPY.

20100403 world chart

20100403 world chart

Another good news, is the job data is improving. It seems to have reach the bottom for states.