Archive for the ‘commodities’ Category

Looking ahead: Singapore


Trend: Sideway hold or downtrend (uptrend line broken), 2930 to hold for uptrend else trend reversal with lower low being made. Mini-downtrend line holding the upward movement. Have to move upwards above 3040 for uptrend to resume.

Indicators: MFI, RSI and Stochastic all turning down. MACD crossover and turning down. CCI turning up.

Candlestick: Last candlestick is a doji with high volume.

Conclusion. Bull and bear are in a tussle right now with the bear getting the upper hand.

Banking Sector

Daily chart: Rebounding from resistance turn support. Very similar to STI but the last candlestick is a white spinning top. It might be forming a bullish flag. RSI MFI seems to hold.

Weekly chart: market seems to be overbought at the moment with possible formation of double top.

Commodities sector

Daily chart: downtrend or possible sideway and last candlestick looks really bad. with all indicators heading southward.

Weekly: 20w MA seems to hold. 3 black candle for last 3 weeks.

Marine sector

Daily: strong uptrend with all indicators doesn’t look good. Put a trailing stop below 20d MA.

Weekly: 5w MA holding the sector but it is the first dark cloud cover after 9 weekly white candle and it its very far from home (20w MA). Look to cash out at least half for stocks in this sector. Stochastic is also giving same signal.

Properties sector

Daily: back to support level. It seems to be beaten down real bad. 5 EMA is holding the downward movement with all indicators turning up from oversold region.

Weekly: doesn’t really look good for now. Better to wait for 1 weekly white candle before going into this sector.


Noble drag into a price war?

MELBOURNE—Peabody Energy Corp. said Tuesday it is raising its takeover offer for Australian miner Macarthur Coal Ltd. to A$3.56 billion ($3.28 billion) from A$3.3 billion previously.

Peabody is now offering A$14 cash per share, up from the initial offer of A$13 …

Seems like Noble Group has to pay a very high premium to acquire this company. Definitely, it will affect their earnings if the deal went through. But will the shareholder allow?

Oil Surges to 17-Month High on Signs of U.S. Economic Growth

April 6, 2010 1 comment

April 5 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil surged to the highest level in 17 months as growth in American jobs and service industries signaled that the economy is recovering from the worst recession since the 1930s.

Oil climbed 2.1 percent amid optimism that fuel demand will increase with an economic rebound. The U.S. is the world’s largest energy-consuming country. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose to an 18-month high.

“The market is in full embrace of the recovery thesis and is pricing it in accordingly,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Round Earth Capital, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on food and energy commodities. “It’s enthusiasm that we’re coming out of this recession.”

Crude oil for May delivery increased $1.75 to settle at $86.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price since Oct. 8, 2008. The contract has risen for five consecutive sessions, the longest stretch in six weeks. Crude has climbed 65 percent in the past year.

Oil traded within a range of $68 to $84 a barrel in the six months ended March 31. Prices rose the past two months as improved investor confidence boosted world equity markets.

The S&P 500 gained 0.8 percent to 1,187.44 in New York, also on the jobs report.

U.S. payrolls rose by 162,000 last month, the Labor Department reported April 2, when U.S. financial markets were closed for the Good Friday holiday. The report included 48,000 temporary workers hired by the government to conduct the Census.


Oil is one of the main factor to watch in a economy because to a certain accuracy, it does show the bullishness or bearishness of the market. However, oil has been speculated quite badly during the 2008 bull run.

Having too high a oil price will not help the economy either cos people will have to spend more on oil and less on other things.

USO is one of the nyse counter and seems to be a ascending triangle in making. We can use the breakout strategy to enter this counter. Oil will also drive the gas and commodities up. Take a look at UNG for entry as the downward trend has only been broken 2 days ago.

Commodities stock such as StraitsAsia, GoldenAgri and IndoAgri seems to be weakened by the major 4 day run  with a spinning top and might have to consolidate to go higher.

Alert: Palm oil sets to go higher

April 4, 2010 1 comment

Looking at this link, seems like palm oil will move higher this coming week. Confirmation with different time frame confluence with the same conclusion.

I use this website to get a feel of how the whole palm oil industry is performing. Industry analysis is required to see the bigger picture.

Now everyone is waiting for STI to breakout successfully. During times like this, I wouldn’t recommend breakout strategy. Better to ambush at support.

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